Where’s The Mango Market?

Run through this thought experiment with me.

  • How many mangos are sold in your city? It doesn’t matter how wrong your answer is – a guess will do.
  • How much does a mango sell for?
  • So what the mango market worth? This isn’t a trick question, just multiply the previous two answer together
  • Where is the mango market?

Ok, the last one is a trick question. This is because there is no mango market. There is a fruit and vegetable market.

Mangos sales aren’t significant enough and compete so directly with alternatives that they don’t have their own market. The price and availability of alternative fruit is almost as significant to the volume of mangos sold as the price of the mangos themselves.

Who cares whether there’s a mango market or not? Well, no one reading this. However every entrepreneur should care whether their product or service has its own market or if it is just one small part of a much larger market.  It is a common mistake to assume that just because there is a demand or need for a product that the product automatically creates its own market.

This is important because it is not possible to have a go-to-market strategy without recognising the market that you are in. The market dictates where your customers gather, what websites they visit, what conferences they go to, who they buy from, how they buy, the terminology they use, etc..

As a general rule if your ‘market’ doesn’t have an industry conference or any independent trade publication you should be asking if it exists in its own right or is just a part of another market.

Example: There is no flavoured water market – there is a soft drinks market. If you want to buy a bottle of flavoured water you go to the chiller cabinet in your convenience store. The flavoured water competes with all soft drinks for shelf space. If the flavoured water you want is out of stock or too expensive you will buy some other soft drink.

While there may be a demand for flavoured water there is no market independent of soft drinks. If you were the CEO of a flavoured water brand, realizing that you compete directly against bottled water, juice and sugary drinks in their market faces up to reality and allows you to create a credible go-to-market strategy. Thinking that you’ve got your own market is self-delusional.

If there are lots of alternatives that you haven’t included in your market then the chances are you are fooling yourself. There is no point trying to sell to this market because there are no customers there – they are all at the soft drinks cabinet.

  • There is no firewall market – there’s a digital corporate security market.
  • There is no invoice reconciliation software market – but there is a financial software market.
  • There is no wooden puzzle market – however there is a games and puzzles market.
  • There is no SMS market – there is a messaging market.


Why I Hate A/B Tests

I hate A/B tests that are recommended to startups when they don’t have the volume to run them. I hate when they are used to avoid being courageous. I hate the false lessons they teach. I hate the illusion of certainty they give. In short I hate nearly everything anyone says about them and nearly every application of them.  So yes, I hate A/B tests.

They Provide No Insights and Generate False Narratives

A well executed A/B test will tell you which side performed better but it won’t tell you why. At the end of the day you may know that “Sign Up” works better than “Create Account”. Is it because the word “Account” has a very specific meaning for your target audience? Did “Sign Up” simply fit the button better? There are any number of possible explanations and you have no idea what the real answer is.  

The worst thing is that humans need narratives and when presented with a fact that is unsupported by a narrative we invent one. That invented narrative will spread further and be remembered longer than the original ‘fact’. But you have no idea if that narrative is actually true – someone just made it up. Try it yourself, go along to Optimizely and try not to create a narrative in your own mind.

They require a LOT of traffic

Split tests require a lot more traffic than most people who are running them have. If you have a page converting at 5% then on average you need about 30,000 visitors to that page to run an A/B test with 95% confidence. With the random walk inherent in your results you might sometimes need triple that. How long is that test going to take to run?  Are you happy standing still during that time?

Even then, the test is going to be wrong 5% of the time – statistically significant does not equal true.

The moment anything changes it invalidates your result

An A/B test requires both sides of the test to be identical except for the item being tested.  So what happens when something changes after the test? A soon as anything changes then the test needs to be rerun because the change invalidates the test. NO-ONE does this.

  • If you change a word on the page, a colour, a button, then the test is invalid
  • If your audience changes then your test is invalid
  • If the damn time of the year changes then your test is invalid
  • Even if significant time passes, your test is invalid as consumers tastes and views evolve over time

Most things aren’t worth split testing

Most of the time the cost of testing is going to far outweigh the potential benefit of the change. Your page probably has thousands of variables. The vast majority aren’t going to be worth the cost of testing.  Don’t expect minor changes to have major results.

On what basis are you choosing your test and what is your rationale?  Fear of being wrong, fear of being caught out, fear of being seen as rash or just because you think you should? Stop covering your ass and have the courage to plough forward and trust your own judgement.

P.S. A/B tests have their place and that place is where you are making fundamental changes that could radically impact performance and where you have large scale.

Adwords is like poker: If you can’t see the sucker, you’re it

When it comes to effective advertising methods Google Adwords rules the roost. You get to display your advert at exactly the right time to exactly the right prospect – the moment your potential customer is looking for it. This is astonishingly powerful and will generate over $100 billion in revenue for Google in 2018. However, all that revenue comes at the expense of the advertiser.  Most categories are now so competitive, making the cost of advertising very high, and when the costs are so high, advertisers need to live and breathe the figures in order to turn a profit.

In a competitive space Google will eventually take all the profit. Imagine:

  • There are four identical competitors
  • Each sell a digital book for $10 which they have written with no associated cost of sales
  • 10 clicks from Google Adwords are required to generate a sale
  • There are only 3 advertising slots available from Google.

How much will each advertiser bid per click?

Game theory tells us they will bid up to $0.99 cents. Any further and they won’t turn a profit. Any less and the other three competitors will out compete for the three slots and revenue goes to zero. So in for $10 sales, Google will take $9.96 – all but $0.04. In effect, Google takes all the money!

But it’s much worse than that. In the above example we limited the number of competitors to 4 and assumed they were all logical actors with complete knowledge and skills. Unfortunately this is rarely the case.

Most competitive markets have a few ill-informed actors. These actors will frequently outbid all the competition in order to maximise their traffic and resulting revenue. Imagine the above scenario with a couple of these ill-informed actors. Each bid $1.05 a click, resulting in Google taking $10.50 for each $10 sale. Google takes more than all the money!

But won’t the ill-informed actor eventually exhaust their budget, realise the error of their ways and either amend their bidding strategy or exit the market? Well yes, but there is an ample supply of ill-information actors ready to take their place.

So if you’re newish to advertising on Google, take a good look around at what your competitors are doing and if you can’t spot the one who is over bidding then chances are it’s you.